The S&P Wakeup Call -- by Jerry Jasinowski



Standard & Poor’s decision to change the nation’s long-term credit outlook from stable to negative should be seen as a wakeup call to Congress and the White House that we simply must find a credible solution to the fiscal crisis, and soon.

This is not strictly a domestic issue. Our government’s credit worthiness underpins the world economy. Foreign governments invest trillions in U.S. debt instruments because they believe our… Continue

The results of the quarterly Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey on the Business Outlook—March 2011 (ER-720) suggest a continued growth trend for manufacturing, although the rate of growth may start slowing later this year.  The survey’s composite index is a leading indicator for the manufacturing sector.  The March 2011 composite index fell slightly to 72 percent from 75 percent in the December 2010 report.   This is the sixth consecutive quarter the index has…

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Black Swans, QE2 and the Market-- by Jerry Jasinowski



The term “black swan” was coined by a New York University Professor of Engineering named Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” published in 2010. His focus was on the great mega-disasters that have occurred infrequently down through history, so infrequently that people dismiss the likelihood of their occurrence and are therefore inevitably unprepared when they happen

But the… Continue

On March 21, 2011 Twitter celebrated it's 5th birthday: "200 million users and 1 billion tweets per week". But has it hit the mainstream audience and what is the adoption rate in the manufacturing sector? In November 2010 Pew Internet…

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The following is an analysis from Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for March 2011:

 “The Institute for Supply Management reported that its purchasing managers index (PMI) was 61.2 in March, down only slightly from 61.4 percent in February,” Meckstroth said.  “An index value above 50 signals that manufacturing activity is growing, but a value of 60 or more is rare.  In…

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Manufacturing Champions-- by Jerry Jasinowski



Despite what you may have heard to the contrary, the U.S. is still the world’s largest and strongest manufacturing country. In every year since 2004, U.S. manufacturing output has exceeded $2 trillion in constant 2005 dollars, twice the output produced in America’s factories in the 1970s. We produce 21 percent of global manufactured products, well above Japan’s 13 percent and China’s 12 percent. Standing alone, U.S. manufacturing today… Continue

Uncertainty causes most to delay decisions relating to their future.

Investors in the last few weeks faced with uncertainty following the Japanese tsunami and reactor meltdown has jumped in and out of stocks.

Dave Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff this past week detailed the differences in risk to investors in 2011 compared to 2010.  Uncertainty, appears to be on the rise. …

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The following is an analysis from Cliff Waldman, Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the durable goods report (-0.6 percent) for February 2011:

 

“The February data on new orders for long-lasting goods suggests an unwelcome softening in a critical source of demand for U.S. manufacturing,” Waldman said.  “Excluding the volatile transportation component, new orders declined by 0.6 percent on the heels of a 3 percent fall in January.  The sluggish…

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Beware the Mokita-- by Jerry Jasinowski



The Trobriand Islanders of the South Pacific have a word that has no exact counterpart in English – mokita – which means “the truth that everyone knows, but nobody speaks.” We have a delicate mokita in the nation’s capital that is well known to the politicians but kept secret from the public -- the Social Security Trust Fund is a mirage.

We are constantly being reassured that Social Security is funded until the year 2037 because of the… Continue

Modern economic theory implies spending for any reason is good.  The rebuilding following a disaster would logically be a plus economically.  Destruction triggers rebuilding – an economically positive event. 

Immediately following an economic disaster, there is dislocation.  Modern supply chains are disrupted.  Transport is problematic.  Like a tsunami, the inter-linkage of modern supply chains ripple through all products.  Japan is an exporting nation. …

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